Welcome to the News Editorial section of PackerChatters.com where you will find Green Bay Packers news updates throughout the year. Packer fans editorial's, pre and post game reports, draft talk and more.
Monday, February 28, 2005
The ultimate "team" philosophy
by Rev White
I think the difference between NE and everyone else is that all 53 players and the coaching staff are on the same page. What the Pats have is the ultimate "team" philosophy. I think that it comes so naturally to them since Belichick has been around guys like Crennel and Weis so long that they know each other inside and out. That will all change now, but who is to say that the Pats will fail because of it?
Plus the Patriot defense is so unique that you can almost plug any player in it and they'll succeed. If there has every been a scheme like that, I haven't seen it in my 25+ years of life. But I think it's easier to find LB's to fit a 3-4 than to find two pretty good rush DE's for a 4-3.
The Patriots just do so many things well that it almost looks simplistic to a lot of fans. The truth of the matter is what the Patriots do likely wouldn't work in 95% of the NFL cities out there. Just because another team makes it look easy doesn't make it so for everyone else. For those fans who say Thompson isn't signing FA's this year because of the NE-model, to look again. I think Thompson wants a good cap situation in GB not only next year, but for the next couple of years. Gone are the "easy money" deals guys like Hunt and Johnson got. Thompson won't hesitate to bring in players to make the Packers better, but it'll be done with a little more study than in the past. I think if Thompson can bring in both S.Rolle and Lucas, he should do it. But that might come at the expense of both Wahle and Sharper, so it's a situation of give and take.
Sherman's legacy is now intertwined with what Bates does with the defense. Either Sherman & Co. will be seen as miracle workers or Sherman will be seen as a coach who peaked early, had some good seasons but was just a mediocre coach who squandered opportunities.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Patty's Green Bay Draft Sheet
Wednesday February 23rd, 2005!
After not hearing from Patty for a couple of weeks and not getting any replies to email our concerns were realized today as we received word from her husband John that Patty suffered a major heart attack Monday Feb. 7. The complete details of the email will not be posted but her husband said in one comment that "Her spirits are very low but that is expected according to her doctors as the medications they are pumping through her are very potent."
Patty is currently in the hospital in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and it is not clear at this time if she will completely recover, that is be able to get back to her non-stop football regimen. It is pretty clear that she will not be doing her "normal" 70 hour weeks preparing for the draft this year and 'Patty's Green Bay Draft Sheet' (7th Annual) will not be finished.
We here at PackerChatters offer our thoughts and prayers to Patty and her family.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Bubba Franks tagged
by Mark Quarderer
I'm very happy that the Packers put the transition tag on Bubba.
Around the league, traditionally, when a team puts the transition tag on a player it is as a step in signing them to a long term contract. This allows both parties to find out what his true worth is in the open market and yet keeps the door open for both parties to sign a long term deal that works to their mutual advantage.
Bubba has stated that he'd prefer to remain in Green Bay, and I'll take that at face value. People in the Packer hierarchy have been quoted as saying that Bubba is a very valuable member of the team, and I'll take that at face value, too.
Any team making an offer to Bubba knows that the Packers have the right to match, so if they're going to have any kind of realistic hope of getting him, they'll almost certainly have to overpay.
Additionally, Bubba is not sexy. He's not one of them seam-splittin', field-stretchin', tackler-tramplin' guys that you see on the ESPN hilight reels, so teams may think...."Do we really need to overpay for a guy like this? Why don't we just draft Heath Miller instead?"
So I'm pretty optimistic this morning that the Packers will hang onto Bubba. I just don't see how you make your team better if you permit young, capable starters to leave. You have enough holes to fill without having to keep replacing new holes which are created by your starters leaving in FA.
He's 26. He's never missed a game with injury. He compares pretty well to any Packer TE who has ever played. He's a good locker room guy and he keeps his nose clean. I think he's definitely worth keeping, and I think that it'll probably happen.
Saturday, February 12, 2005
The Sum Of Its Parts
I still remember the announcement, sitting in my chair with my pretzels, as the Patriots ran onto the field. They had just gotten done announcing the starting lineups for the “Greatest Show on Turf”, with superstars like Kurt Warner, Issac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk all getting a turn to bask in their own, individual moment of glory.
I remember waiting for the Patriots to be announced, almost snickering at the bunch of no-names that the Rams were going to steamroll for their second Super Bowl in three years. Who were these guys? Who was Tom Brady? I didn’t know a soul on the defensive side of the ball…and for that matter, if they hadn’t already been hyping up Brady as the guy who replaced Drew Bledsoe, I wouldn’t have know a soul on their offense, either.
But, it didn’t matter. “And now, being introduced as a team, the New England Patriots!!!” (see vision of entire team, offense and defense, running out as one mass onto the field).
Ha. Ha ha.
That’s not supposed to happen. I’m supposed to see chest-thumping and wild dancing. I’m supposed to see Ray Lewis do his little dance, or Terrell Owens mocking it. I’m supposed to see a face to go with each of these superstars’ names.
Ha. Funny Patriots.
As the game went on, I not only found myself rooting for the Patriots because they were underdogs, but because they played so well. I saw them stymie the vaunted Rams into a 14 point deficit. I saw Ty Law pick off a pass and return it for a touchdown I saw a young, efficient quarterback pass for only one touchdown and 147 yards.
And then, as I feared, I saw the Rams fire back, on the arm of a former MVP named Warner.
And I saw them fall short. Glitz and showmanship and high-powered offense lost the battle to hard work, selflessness, and a stout defense.
I was almost insulted when Tom Brady was named MVP of that game. The whole team should have been named the MVP.
I heard the saying reverberating in the echoes of 9/11….”We’re All Patriots”.
Since that day, the New England Patriots have become an odd measuring stick for the rest of the NFL, and naturally, the Green Bay Packers. How can’t they…they’ve won 3 out of 4 Super Bowls. Every team wants to be in that position.
But how do you copy the blueprint of the Patriots? Spend a sixth round draft choice on a quarterback? Find castoff running backs to come in and be your runners? Have no-name wide receivers come in and play? That’s not sexy. That won’t bring in the fans. Randy Moss will sell more jerseys.
At the end of the Super Bowl, we once again found ourselves wondering… “Who the heck do you give the MVP award to???” Again, they played flawless, if unspectacular, football. The Eagles, again, had the sexy name players that got all the individual attention: Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kearse, Trotter, Simon. And, again, they tried to come back at the end of the game, and the Patriots turned them away.
Again, Brady passed for a modest 236 yards and a couple scores. No interceptions. Donovan McNabb, like Warner, passed for 350+ yards, but turned it over to a great defense too many times.
The Patriots can’t give credit to any one position, any one squad for their success. They play with complete team ball. Freddie Mitchell disses one Patriot, the rest come together and shut him down. The defense is great. The offense is efficient and nearly error-free. Adam Vinatieri is ice-blooded. And the coaching is the best in the league.
They’re so efficient, they are almost boring. Bland. Old-School.
And they are everything right in sports. Perhaps the only thing. We live in an era of me-first, me-shawn, me-pumped up sports that are turning people away from our favorite past times. The NHL is on the verge of shutting down because of greed. The NBA has become a showcase for street thugs who never had to go to college. MLB has become a travesty of itself, embroiled in steroids and an unlevel playing field that has turned half the teams into AAAA farm clubs.
Even the NFL has approached these “new norms”, with players like TO, Randy Moss, and Mike McKenzie threatening the fabric of the game.
But the Patriots are the epitome of teamwork. If “Hoosiers” were a football team, it would be the Patriots.
Synergy is the intangible effect of great teamwork, where the overall team becomes more than a sum of its parts. The old story of 1+1+1=14 can easily be applied to New England: average players and late-round picks buy into the team concept, and work to their ability in a selfless way that makes the whole team more successful, and more successful than any other team in the league right now.
Forget those position-by-position matchups that the media likes to do. It doesn’t apply to the Pats. They’d probably lose every single battle, but they win the war.
Our Packers, unfortunately, are becoming the anti-Patriots, and I don’t believe that’s a good thing. We see talent at nearly every position, and we constantly fret about how they are underachieving. Favre has taken heat. Green has taken heat. Hunt is in the oven with the setting on “high”. Sharper, Carroll. Even the players who are actually playing well are getting criticism, like Barnett and Harris and Driver. Oh, don’t forget the criticism of the coaches. Burning effigy of Mike Sherman, anyone? The Slowik effigy has finally burned out.
As the media and fans search to find a formula that explains our problems, it becomes painfully noticeable that two things are prevalent:
a) nearly everyone boils the problem down to one person or player on the team;
b) nearly every person or player on the team has had a finger pointed at them by somebody as being the problem.
Not good. The critics of the team have focused so much on their “pet problem”, without realizing that each my simply be a symptom of a greater problem.
Teamwork. Synergy. Playing together on the same page. Team first, me second. Goals. “Super Bowl or Bust”.
I am in full awareness that there are many people who are more qualified than me to evaluate players and their performances. Not being a scout and having limited statistical experience (though I did get an A in Stats in college), I know that many here have leads and information I can’t have access to.
So, I approach this from an introspective fan’s point of view. Perhaps all of our arguments, from the Turnover Cultists to the Favre Apologists, from the Coaches-Fault to the Players-Fault, from the Cut-em-all-and-take-the-hit to the We-must-resign-Wahles…each of these are just symptoms, that benching Favre or cutting Sharper or going to a 3-4 defense or getting rid of Sherman won’t solve.
Sherman received high praise his first season for taking the boys on a bus to go bowling during training camp. It brought a sense of relaxation of comfort with the team. I’m sure he was pretty popular for a day or two, also.
With Sherman planted back in his position as coach, perhaps this is a good step towards building back that environment, where slackers like Antonio Freeman aren’t tolerated, where the W is the only stat worth caring about, where the Head Coach is the General leading you into battle, and everyone else falls into ranks and blindly battles for the cause. Bellichek falls into that category, for certain.
Perhaps Thompson is another step towards regaining this feeling. Perhaps Jim Bates will bring that discipline to the defensive side of the ball. You respect a guy more when you don’t feel he’s the “Coach’s Favorite Buddy”.
Obviously, there hasn’t been a sense of such synergy in Green Bay since the 60’s, when a bunch of good athletes got together and played blindly for a guy named Lombardi.
There are many symptoms that needs to be treated: deciding who to resign, deciding what schemes to implement, planning for a quality draft.
But a lately-much-maligned GM by the name of Ron Wolf walked into Green Bay in 1991, looked at the roster, and said there weren’t many players here than will still be here a couple years from then. And he was right. Only a couple of guys like Butler, Jacke, and West remained Packers when they won the Super Bowl.
Wolf established an attitude of “You’re only here as long as it takes us to find someone better to replace you”, and the players jumped on board. They knew who was in charge, and trusted that direction.
Some may suggest that Mike Holmgren was a part of that philosophy, until perhaps his own ego got in the way following the Super Bowl victory. Such, also, will eventually happen to today’s Patriots.
But for now, the Patriots have written up a blueprint with no directions, a pattern to follow with nothing to prove it except their record. Dynasty talk aside, they are the ONLY team in the new era of free agency to have consistent, lasting success.
But it isn’t the schemes. It isn’t having a marquee player at every position. It isn’t doing a personalized dance in the end zone.
It’s introducing yourself as a team. It’s playing defensive back when you’re a wide receiver, and enjoying it. It’s standing up for your teammates, instead of standing around when your lineman is cheap-shot, and only having the coach actually go get in that player’s grill after the game.
The Packers finished the season as a bunch of individuals, with their fingers pointed at each other. The Patriots finished as a team, with their fingers pointed in the air.
Where’s your finger?
Thursday, February 10, 2005
Live Packer Draft Chat update
D.J. Boyer from Football.com is rescheduled and will be in the Main Chat Room Thursday February 17th at 8:00pm. DJ will answer your questions about the 2005 Green Bay Packers Draft and the 2005 NFL Draft. Stop by our Green Bay Packers Draft Forums and NFL Draft Forums to see what our 'locals' are talking about.
How we analyze prospects
So many times throughout the years, we have seen high draft picks end up in the junk pile a couple years later (Leaf, Reynolds, Emtman, Couch, Dupree, etc., the list goes on and on) and for whatever reason, never making an impact in the NFL. At the same time, we so often see low picks (or undrafted FAs) end up making a huge impact and having long productive careers at a variety of positions (see Brady, Tauscher, Starr, Terrell Davis, KGB, etc). It gets some of us to thinking...
Sometimes, a serious injury is the reason a career is derailed before it can start. (Gary Berry and Vince Clark as Packer DBs come to mind). While injuries might account for a significant percentage of early-round busts, for the purpose of this thread, let's ignore them. There seem to be several basic reasons we can focus on.
PHYSICAL ISSUES- It could be that, despite all the poking and prodding and combine testing, a player's physical attributes and skills don't match what scouts and personnel managers thought they were (think: Rich Campbell's arm). With such a scientific focus on testing results and data, this possibility seems like it is probably a rare occurrence.
LACK OF INTELLIGENCE - Some football positions, especially quarterback, middle linebacker, safety, offensive line, do require a reasonable level of basic intelligence. Certainly, the Wonderlic, that marvel of modern educational science, can serve to identify players who lack smarts, but scouts and coaches often put little stock on these results, saying a player has "game smarts" or "football intelligence." I recently read on another board that the NE Patriots have the highest number of college graduates on their roster of any team in the NFL. Makes me say "hmmm..."
CHARACTER - Teams certainly downgrade players who have been disciplined by their college team, or had brushes with the law. This kind of stuff is pretty high up on the radar for a lot of teams, so it is a fairly minor factor (in terms of frequency of occurrence) in why a player ultimately fails in the NFL. The Vikings have finally realized that they will never win a championship with Randy Moss, in spite of all his talent, because he's basically a self-centered jerk.
DESIRE & HEART - This is the hardest one to put your finger on, the hardest one to measure or test for, but to me it might be the single most important factor in a player's (and a team's) success or failure in the nfl. How do you detect or measure the inner drive that will make a good player into a great one, or a great player into a hall of famer? How do you find players that will infect a whole team with the desire to be the absolute best they can be?
I know, the main things in player scouting are still height, weight, 40 time, athleticism and that stuff, and that's not going to change, nor should it. But I've still got to think that a prospect's intelligence, character and desire to succeed carry more importance as factors in team success than some (the Packers?) are currently placing on them. The problem is that you have to be very close to a player's situation to really know much about this sort of thing. Still, smart teams and good organizations are really starting to change the way they do business in this area.
Monday, February 07, 2005
Observations on the Super Bowl
by Mark Quarderer
A couple of things that struck me.....
Both of these teams play pretty good defense. Not great, not dominating, but good solid defense. Even so, they both gave up some big plays to their opponent and at times didn't get very good pressure on the QB. Now, if either of these teams had done what they did against the Packers it would have been proof that the defense sucks, especially all those scores given up in the fourth quarter.
I especially enjoyed the comment by one of the analysts that New England doesn't expect much of a pass rush from its defensive line....they just want them to stop the run. I really think that we should take a page from their book on that. I think our lust for a pass rush was a direct contributor to the ill-fated blitzarama defense and the score of long touchdowns it engendered.
New England was uncharacteristically sloppy in the first half with penalties and the fumbled snap/exchange......but Philly didn't take advantage of that. New England isn't going to do very many things to beat itself and you have to take advantage. The interception that McNabb threw near the end zone.....what was he thinking? You lose a game by three points and then go back and look at something like that.......Philly basically gave away points there, and that's something you just can't do against good teams in big games and expect to win.
Brady is a very accurate passer......Donovan McNabb is not. Brady is a precision guy...he does remind me of STarr in that regard. He also didn't attempt to force anything into a place where it wouldn't fit. It's no wonder that this guy just does not throw interceptions in the playoffs. Think about it....New England has won three Super Bowls, each of them by a field goal. And in those games Brady hasn't thrown a single pick.
If Brady had gone out there and thrown 2-3-4-5-6 interceptions, I don't think we'd be talking dynasty right now. This guy does his job very, very well.
New England kept McNabb from hurting them with the run. I hope that we study the tape of that, because we haven't kept a running QB from hurting us since Pamela Anderson was an A cup.
When you look at a guy like Rodney Harrison, you see how much good safety play can help a defense, and how poor our safeties are in comparison. Likewise the linebacker play of these two teams is much better than we're getting. When they tackle you, they're stripping at the ball. When they're in pass coverage, they're in the passing lanes and reading the QBs eyes. When they blitz, they actually get some pressure.
We're going to need to upgrade those two areas, for sure.
Once again I am struck by just how thin the margin is among the really good teams in the NFL. The difference between the best team, and the 4th best team, and the 8th best team turns on a handful of plays. Packer fans should not despair.......despite the fact that we have some work to do, we aren't light-years behind these guys.
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
I have truly enjoyed the watching of this great QB. While I do not hold him in the highest esteem like many of you on this board I do respect his abilities immensely. He does make my top 5 list.
I think brett Favre has been very good to the Green BAy Packers. I know most of you will snort and holler at this post but I will say it anyways. I think Brett Favre has cost the Packers 2 chances to be in the SUper Bowl. But he was part of a great team that made it to the Super Bowl twice and if not for some silly rear end coaching by Homgren we should have two titles instead of one. I am not going to get into any arguing over the defense versus Brett's wild throws and mistakes. That is not what this post is about
No, I am extolling my respect for one of the better QB's I have ever watched play football in the NFL. If he decides to retire then that is the decision he and his wife have agreed on. I am not going to say it is wrong or right. It is thier decision. I would like for my own greediness, to see him return and play another 2 seasons at the minimum.
Brett has played a lot of football and as the grizzled vet he is, he tries at times to will his team to victory. At times I believe he gets into a zone where it just does not matter he is going to try and take the game on his own and I do not know if he forgets about the other 46 players or not. Whatever, when we watch Brett play we are witnessing a truly good player. Forget about his mistakes. Forget about some of the bone headed throws he makes. Brett entertains us and wows us with throws that any other QB can just dream of completing. Brett still makes some throws that are just phenominal to watch. Brett brings us 8 or 9 victories and with the coaching of Mike Sherman and the play of the rest of the team we can expect 10 or 11 wins.
Sure we have made the playoffs only to come up short. 10 teams come up short every year in the playoffs. What hurts is we all want to see Brett get another Super Bowl win or two to take his place among the best. It may not happen. But that does not diminish Brett Favre's place in the history of the Green Bay Packers or the NFL. They will be showing some of the throws that came from Brett Favre for the next 25 years or longer. He can do things with the football that no one else has or may ever do. He is a gambler and a wildcatter combined. But he is more than just that. He is a winner.
If he and his wife decide that enough is enough then he can walk away from this game with his head held high and go out as a winner. A winner in my book. 13 seasons with the Green BAy Packers and 13 winning seasons.
To win in the playoffs takes total team effort and sometimes the greatness of one is not enough to overcome the failing of others. Sometimes the greatness of that one presses too hard and it blows up in his face. That may well be Brett's legacy the last 4 seasons. But mark my words right now. Brett does not have to concern himself with those last losses each of the last 4 seasons. What he has done has been remarkable. Especially for a kid coming out of college where he almost never made it. An accident that nearly claimed his life and the subsequent years of serious pain where he became addicted to pain killers. Truly remarkable story and truly a remarkable man.
Yes he owes me or any other fan nothing. He has awarded us with exciting and tremendous play for 13 seasons. If Brett Favre decides to spend his time with is family and wife in general then we fans should have nothing but adoration and respect for one of the best QB's to play in the NFL.
Sure we will tremble and be very upset about the fortunes of the Green BAy Packers. Sure we will worry our little minds and hearts over what next. That is to be expected. Whoever becomes the next QB for the Green BAy Packers I hope will be afforded the respect we have shown for Brett Favre. It ill take a remarkable individual to be the QB for the Green BAy Packers after the 13 seasons we have had watching a wild arm kid from Mississippi lead the Green BAy Packers.
Here is hoping from my heart that we still see # 4 for another 2 seasons. But it is for some selfish reasons that I want to see Brett stay. I want to see him set some individaul records. Sure I would love to see the Green BAy Packers win another SUper Bowl. I want to see that every season but right now I come from a selfish vein. I want to see some records set by Brett. Taking nothing away from Dan Marino I want to see Brett beat out Marino.
I believe I have been blessed in terms of watching QB's in the NFL
I got to see Terry Bradshaw make everyone loook like idiots for claiming he was too dumb to be a winning QB - All he did was win 4 Super Bowls. I got to see John Elway thorw a football. I witnessed the great Joe Montana - I watced Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas. I had the opportunity to watch Troy Aikman win 3 SUper Bowls despite not being a great passser just a downright accurate thrower. I saw Roger Staubach run around and scramble and hit receivers on the run. Fran Tarkenton as well. I watched a truly great QB in Len Dawson play football. And I watched in awe the passing efforts of Dan Marino. But in terms of being entertained no one did it better than #4
Here is 1 fan who hopes we see Brett Favre in 2005 and 2006
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Ok. I spent some time pouring over CP’s salary cap page. First, I know most of us were operating under the assumption that he included the salaries below 53 on his number. This is incorrect. I added things up and his total cap number only includes the top 53 salaries. Important note: it DOES include Hannibal Navies salary.
Using that data, I decided to do another analysis of the salary cap figures and potential moves. I use the estimate 85,500,000 as a cap ceiling.
That puts our Salary cap number at 92,345,621.
Potential Cuts - for this, I used my own ideas combined with the “salary cap casualties” from 2 websites.
Mike Wahle – This is an obvious one. The more I analyze the situation, the more I feel that Wahle will not be coming back. He’s going to demand a contract significantly above the one signed by Woody (det) last year. That’s too much to spend on a guard. Period. Despite how great he is as a player. Savings – 10.25 Million.
Hannibal Navies – absolutely no way he’s back at his current cap number. Savings – 1.350 Million
Grey Ruegamer – The emergence of Scott Wells seals his fate. Savings – 1.2 Million
William Henderson – I did have this in my mind, but I wasn’t sure about it. After seeing two different websites that mentioned him as a possible cap cut, I included him. Too much money invested in our fullbacks. Savings – 1.1 Million
Darren Sharper – No safety is worth an 8.6mil cap number. While I think he can be persuaded to drop some from his cap figure, I cannot count on that. So I go worst-case scenario and assume we cut him completely. Savings – 3.366666 Million
Michael Hawthorne – With our youth movement at CB, he’s just not needed. Savings – 710k
Mark Roman – Unfortunately, he just didn’t pan out. Savings – 700k
Total Cap Savings – 18,676,666
Cap Post Cuts – 73, 668, 955
Ahman Green – It would shock me if we do not extend Ahman Green. I can’t see trading him and I cannot see him playing at his 5mil cap value this year. I estimate the first year cap number of an extension to be around 3million. This would lower his cap number in 2005 significantly. (Base salary 2005 minus new cap number = savings). Savings – 1.375 Million
Cap post extension – 72,293,955
Brett Favre – I just don’t think there is any way that they don’t mess with that unwieldy 3million dollar LTBE bonus. Favre will give a great deal of cap space back when he retires. Even if we push some of his LTBE bonus dollars into future years the cap windfall will be quite substantial. Better to push some of that back to improve the team while he’s here. Guaranteeing that 3mil will push 2.5million in cap space into future years. (6 years remaining on contract = 500k per year). Savings – 2.5Million
Cap post restructure – 69,793, 955 (-15,706,045)
Ok, lets start buying now that we’ve saved a bunch. Keep in mind, for each signing I make I will subtract a number from the cap value that I get for a salary that we push out of the top 53 with the inclusion of the new player we have signed. I do that only after we get passed 7 additions, as we have cut 7 players (and in the process bumped 7 guys up into the top 53 salaries)
Bubba Franks – It’s hard to gage the price that Franks will have. I looked at Jim Kleinsasser’s contract last year, but the Vikings put a lot of bonus money in his first year contract to bump up their cap number some and his first year cap value was over 3mil. Taking a more normally structured contract and adding a bit to it using the overall value of that contract, I come up with a cap value in the first year of approximately 2.25million. Again, this is sort of an estimate, as I didn’t have a lot to base it on, but, I feel it’s pretty accurate. Cap hit – 2.25 million.
Marco Rivera – Again, I can’t really find the true value of Marco Rivera at this point. I am just going to kind of guess and say his first year cap comes in at about 1.5mil. Cap hit – 1.5 million
Bhawoh Jue – Not going to be a big player in free agency. Dumping Safeties left and right we need at least some stability. Very minimum contract, 500k. Cap hit – 500k
Torrence Marshall – Again, just depth and ST play. Insurance against not getting a replacement for Navies if everything goes wrong in the draft and free agency. Cap hit – 500k
Ben Steele – minimum contract. Cap hit – 305k
Cullen Jenkins – resigned but not for much. Cap hit – 450k.
Aaron Kampman – I think Kampman and Nall will get extensions prior to free agency. They deserve it. Kampman will require a few more dollars then Nall. I put Kampman’s contract similar to Robert Ferguson’s. (though I don’t think he’ll get a 1mil LTBE bonus out of it in the first year) Cap hit – 1.5mil
**note we’re past that 7 player mark now, so I will start subtracting 230k**
Craig Nall – see above. Cap hit – 800k (1milish minus 230k)
Restricted Free Agents.
Najeh Davenport – I don’t think he stays in Green Bay if we give him the min tender. Therefore I think we tender him at the mid tender (1.4mil) and then trade him for a 3rd. I will use a mid third round pick as an estimate for his value. Targets include Oakland, TB, Seattle, Miami, Arizona, Cincinatti.. quite a few teams actually. No cap hit.
JT O’Sullivan, Kevin Barry, Paris Lenon – Min tender. Cap hit 650k – 230k = 420k X 3 = 1.260million
Cap value of re-signings/RFA’s – 9.565 million.
Cap total post re-sign/rfa – 78,858, 995 (-6,641,045)
Using last year’s cap #’s for rookies and increasing it some for an early pick and another year. Last year’s cap – around 4.15mil. I’ll increase that to about 4.75 million. Last year we had 6 picks, so I have to subtract out 6 contracts. Cap hit 4.75million – (6 X 230k = 1.38mil) = 3.370 Millon
Cap value of rookies – 3.370 Millon
Cap total post rookie pool – 82,228,995 (-3,271,005)
Unrestricted free agents (other teams)
Ok, we are in desperate need of a safety and a LB here.
Morlon Greenwood – Obviously I think this guy is coming to Green Bay to follow Jim Bates. Plays strong side in Miami, but is fast enough to play pretty much any spot. I use Dhani Jones contract as a guide here (5 year deal, about 2+mil in signing bonus). Approximate first year cap value 1.3mil. Cap hit – 1.3mil.
Sammy Knight (Kenoy Kennedy or Lance Schulter (possible cap cut) or Dexter Jackson) – I don’t really have a distinct preference here. I just know we need another veteran safety to come in. I can’t see Sammy Knight coming to the cold weather, though I can’t figure the Bates factor in. One of these three would likely suit our needs and come in at a decent price. I estimate first year cap hit at about 1mil. Cap hit – 1mil.
Cap value of free agents 2.3million minus (230k X 2 = 460k) = 1.84million
Total cap = 84,068,995
Projected cap differential = -1,431,005
I figure that gives me a little wiggle room on my contracts, some play in my rookie pool (as we will likely have more picks this year then last year) and as well gives me some money in reserve for the year (waivers/IR etc).
Draft (very rough idea)
Round 1 – Matt Roth DE
Round 2a – Kirk Morrison LB
Round 2b – Donte Nicholson FS
Round 3a (Najeh Davenport trade) – Dan Buenning OG
Round 3b – Darren Sproles RB
Round 4 – Sean Considine FS
Round 5/6/7 – I get best available Tackle, Fullback and Wide Receiver/Returner prospects
QB – Favre, Nall, O’Sullivan
RB – Green, Fischer, Sproles, (Walter Williams?)
FB – Luchey, Leach, (rookie)
WR – Walker, Driver, Ferguson, Chatman, (rookie)
TE – Franks, McCugh, Steele
RT – Tauscher, Barry, Curtin
RG – Rivera
C – Flanagan, Wells
LG – Buenning/Morley
LT – Clifton, (rookie)
(note: if necessary, Flanagan moves over to LG and Wells takes his place as a starter of Buenning or Morley don’t step up into the slot, the same happens if Clifton gets injured. If Rivera gets injured, Tauscher slides to RG and Barry or Curtin replace)
RE – KGB, Kampman
DT – Washington (I hope), Hunt, Williams (Jenkins on passing situations)
NT – Jackson, Lee, Williams, Cole
LE – Roth, Kampman, Peterson
SSLB – Morlon Greenwood, Marshall
MLB – Barnett, Morrison
WLB – Diggs, Lenon
LCB – Harris, Horton, Johnson
RCB – Carroll, Thomas
SS – Sammy Knight
FS – Donte Nicholson/Jue/Sean Considine
(note Kirk Morrison is primary backup at all three LB slots. Knight replaced with whoever we get among those FA’s listed if necessary. Nicholson, Jue and Considine battle it out for the second safety slot)
Special Teams – Upgraded immensely with the presence of Considine, Morrison and Returner – Sproles.
There ya go. My analysis in a nut shell. Enjoy!