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Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Offseason redux

by faede
For PackerChatters

Ok. I spent some time pouring over CP’s salary cap page. First, I know most of us were operating under the assumption that he included the salaries below 53 on his number. This is incorrect. I added things up and his total cap number only includes the top 53 salaries. Important note: it DOES include Hannibal Navies salary.

Using that data, I decided to do another analysis of the salary cap figures and potential moves. I use the estimate 85,500,000 as a cap ceiling.

That puts our Salary cap number at 92,345,621.

Potential Cuts - for this, I used my own ideas combined with the “salary cap casualties” from 2 websites.

Mike Wahle – This is an obvious one. The more I analyze the situation, the more I feel that Wahle will not be coming back. He’s going to demand a contract significantly above the one signed by Woody (det) last year. That’s too much to spend on a guard. Period. Despite how great he is as a player. Savings – 10.25 Million.

Hannibal Navies – absolutely no way he’s back at his current cap number. Savings – 1.350 Million

Grey Ruegamer – The emergence of Scott Wells seals his fate. Savings – 1.2 Million

William Henderson – I did have this in my mind, but I wasn’t sure about it. After seeing two different websites that mentioned him as a possible cap cut, I included him. Too much money invested in our fullbacks. Savings – 1.1 Million

Darren Sharper – No safety is worth an 8.6mil cap number. While I think he can be persuaded to drop some from his cap figure, I cannot count on that. So I go worst-case scenario and assume we cut him completely. Savings – 3.366666 Million

Michael Hawthorne – With our youth movement at CB, he’s just not needed. Savings – 710k

Mark Roman – Unfortunately, he just didn’t pan out. Savings – 700k

Total Cap Savings – 18,676,666
Cap Post Cuts – 73, 668, 955

Ahman Green – It would shock me if we do not extend Ahman Green. I can’t see trading him and I cannot see him playing at his 5mil cap value this year. I estimate the first year cap number of an extension to be around 3million. This would lower his cap number in 2005 significantly. (Base salary 2005 minus new cap number = savings). Savings – 1.375 Million

Cap post extension – 72,293,955
Brett Favre – I just don’t think there is any way that they don’t mess with that unwieldy 3million dollar LTBE bonus. Favre will give a great deal of cap space back when he retires. Even if we push some of his LTBE bonus dollars into future years the cap windfall will be quite substantial. Better to push some of that back to improve the team while he’s here. Guaranteeing that 3mil will push 2.5million in cap space into future years. (6 years remaining on contract = 500k per year). Savings – 2.5Million

Cap post restructure – 69,793, 955 (-15,706,045)

Ok, lets start buying now that we’ve saved a bunch. Keep in mind, for each signing I make I will subtract a number from the cap value that I get for a salary that we push out of the top 53 with the inclusion of the new player we have signed. I do that only after we get passed 7 additions, as we have cut 7 players (and in the process bumped 7 guys up into the top 53 salaries)

Bubba Franks – It’s hard to gage the price that Franks will have. I looked at Jim Kleinsasser’s contract last year, but the Vikings put a lot of bonus money in his first year contract to bump up their cap number some and his first year cap value was over 3mil. Taking a more normally structured contract and adding a bit to it using the overall value of that contract, I come up with a cap value in the first year of approximately 2.25million. Again, this is sort of an estimate, as I didn’t have a lot to base it on, but, I feel it’s pretty accurate. Cap hit – 2.25 million.

Marco Rivera – Again, I can’t really find the true value of Marco Rivera at this point. I am just going to kind of guess and say his first year cap comes in at about 1.5mil. Cap hit – 1.5 million

Bhawoh Jue – Not going to be a big player in free agency. Dumping Safeties left and right we need at least some stability. Very minimum contract, 500k. Cap hit – 500k

Torrence Marshall – Again, just depth and ST play. Insurance against not getting a replacement for Navies if everything goes wrong in the draft and free agency. Cap hit – 500k

Ben Steele – minimum contract. Cap hit – 305k

Cullen Jenkins – resigned but not for much. Cap hit – 450k.

Aaron Kampman – I think Kampman and Nall will get extensions prior to free agency. They deserve it. Kampman will require a few more dollars then Nall. I put Kampman’s contract similar to Robert Ferguson’s. (though I don’t think he’ll get a 1mil LTBE bonus out of it in the first year) Cap hit – 1.5mil

**note we’re past that 7 player mark now, so I will start subtracting 230k**
Craig Nall – see above. Cap hit – 800k (1milish minus 230k)
Restricted Free Agents.
Najeh Davenport – I don’t think he stays in Green Bay if we give him the min tender. Therefore I think we tender him at the mid tender (1.4mil) and then trade him for a 3rd. I will use a mid third round pick as an estimate for his value. Targets include Oakland, TB, Seattle, Miami, Arizona, Cincinatti.. quite a few teams actually. No cap hit.

JT O’Sullivan, Kevin Barry, Paris Lenon – Min tender. Cap hit 650k – 230k = 420k X 3 = 1.260million

Cap value of re-signings/RFA’s – 9.565 million.
Cap total post re-sign/rfa – 78,858, 995 (-6,641,045)

Rookie Pool
Using last year’s cap #’s for rookies and increasing it some for an early pick and another year. Last year’s cap – around 4.15mil. I’ll increase that to about 4.75 million. Last year we had 6 picks, so I have to subtract out 6 contracts. Cap hit 4.75million – (6 X 230k = 1.38mil) = 3.370 Millon

Cap value of rookies – 3.370 Millon
Cap total post rookie pool – 82,228,995 (-3,271,005)

Unrestricted free agents (other teams)
Ok, we are in desperate need of a safety and a LB here.

Morlon Greenwood – Obviously I think this guy is coming to Green Bay to follow Jim Bates. Plays strong side in Miami, but is fast enough to play pretty much any spot. I use Dhani Jones contract as a guide here (5 year deal, about 2+mil in signing bonus). Approximate first year cap value 1.3mil. Cap hit – 1.3mil.

Sammy Knight (Kenoy Kennedy or Lance Schulter (possible cap cut) or Dexter Jackson) – I don’t really have a distinct preference here. I just know we need another veteran safety to come in. I can’t see Sammy Knight coming to the cold weather, though I can’t figure the Bates factor in. One of these three would likely suit our needs and come in at a decent price. I estimate first year cap hit at about 1mil. Cap hit – 1mil.

Cap value of free agents 2.3million minus (230k X 2 = 460k) = 1.84million

Total cap = 84,068,995
Projected cap differential = -1,431,005

I figure that gives me a little wiggle room on my contracts, some play in my rookie pool (as we will likely have more picks this year then last year) and as well gives me some money in reserve for the year (waivers/IR etc).

Draft (very rough idea)

Round 1 – Matt Roth DE
Round 2a – Kirk Morrison LB
Round 2b – Donte Nicholson FS
Round 3a (Najeh Davenport trade) – Dan Buenning OG
Round 3b – Darren Sproles RB
Round 4 – Sean Considine FS
Round 5/6/7 – I get best available Tackle, Fullback and Wide Receiver/Returner prospects

Depth chart
QB – Favre, Nall, O’Sullivan
RB – Green, Fischer, Sproles, (Walter Williams?)
FB – Luchey, Leach, (rookie)
WR – Walker, Driver, Ferguson, Chatman, (rookie)
TE – Franks, McCugh, Steele
RT – Tauscher, Barry, Curtin
RG – Rivera
C – Flanagan, Wells
LG – Buenning/Morley
LT – Clifton, (rookie)
(note: if necessary, Flanagan moves over to LG and Wells takes his place as a starter of Buenning or Morley don’t step up into the slot, the same happens if Clifton gets injured. If Rivera gets injured, Tauscher slides to RG and Barry or Curtin replace)

RE – KGB, Kampman
DT – Washington (I hope), Hunt, Williams (Jenkins on passing situations)
NT – Jackson, Lee, Williams, Cole
LE – Roth, Kampman, Peterson
SSLB – Morlon Greenwood, Marshall
MLB – Barnett, Morrison
WLB – Diggs, Lenon
LCB – Harris, Horton, Johnson
RCB – Carroll, Thomas
SS – Sammy Knight
FS – Donte Nicholson/Jue/Sean Considine

(note Kirk Morrison is primary backup at all three LB slots. Knight replaced with whoever we get among those FA’s listed if necessary. Nicholson, Jue and Considine battle it out for the second safety slot)
Special Teams – Upgraded immensely with the presence of Considine, Morrison and Returner – Sproles.

There ya go. My analysis in a nut shell. Enjoy!

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