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Monday, January 10, 2005

My offseason thoughts



by faede
For PackerChatters

Ok. I assume a cap of 85.5 million, up 5 million from 2004. This seems the consensus of what will occur and is definitely in the realm of reality.

Currently, we have a cap figure of 87Million, 1.5Million over the projected cap.


CUTS

Darren Sharper –
I think he’s gone, honestly. His cap hit is 8.6mil. Cutting him gives us 3.4 million in cap space back. Savings – 3.4million.

William Henderson –
I love him, but, we cannot afford him. It’s time for hard, but important changes. With Vonta Leach and Nick Luchey on the roster, Henderson is wasteful. Savings – 1.1million.

Grey Ruegamer –
Impressive job, but, Scott Wells is the guy. Bye Grey. Savings – 1.2 million.

Mark Roman –
Didn’t fill the need. Gone. Savings – 750k.

Hannibal Navies –
He can void his deal if he wants. That’s probably best for both sides. Savings – 1.35million.

Michael Hawthorne –
No longer needed. Savings – 710k.

CUT – Savings = 8.51 Million


TRADES
Cledtius Hunt –
I want him off the team. Period. No questions asked. Bye! I’ll take whatever I can get. For this, I’ll say we get a 5th round pick for him. I’d imagine we could get more, but I’ll take that. Cap HIT + 750k.

Ahman Green –
I don’t think he’ll ever get over his fumbling issues. I think that we can only afford one turnover-prone player on the team. Favre is enough. I trade him for at least a mid to late first round pick. (note – this is extremely doubtful to happen. If it doesn’t, I extend him to lower his cap hit. He can play 3 more years with production. I will put a number on his extension in a later section). Savings – 4.375 Million.


Najeh Davenport –
See above. Fumbles too much. I trade him for a late second round pick or equivalent. Tender him then deal him. Savings – 0

TRADE SAVINGS – 3.625 Million (Green Trade) +750k (No Green trade)


EXTENSIONS

Mike Wahle –
I want to go in with a 2 new RB’s so, I want the O-line completely back. I think it will be a key. I give Mike Wahle the same contract that Damian Woody got last year plus add a smidge or two for a new year and a better player. I tried to find exactly what Woody made in his first year of his contract but it was sort of difficult. According to the fansites, Damian Woody got 9mil signing bonus on a 6 year deal and the first year of the deal had a 2mil base salary. Lets make it easy and go 10mil of signing bonus on a 5 year deal and we’ll even keep the 2mil base salary (this is overestimating, I believe). That would negate his current awful 11million dollar cap hit. Lowering it to around 4mil. Savings – 7 Million.

Mike Flanagan –
He’s in the final year of his contract coming off an injury, this is as cheap as he will get. Get him shored up for a few years. I really have no figures to base on here, so I’ll just wing it and say that we can make his first year cap figure around 1.75 million. His current cap figure is around 2.2 million, so, we’ll go with a cap… Savings – 500k

Ahman Green –
I will put Ahman Green here as well. Since I think it is so unlikely that he gets traded. Clinton Portis is the most recent big RB signing, but Green is obviously much older then Portis. I’ll say the signing bonus is less, but the Redskins made Portis’ first year cap figure very low, so we’ll just match it evenly. Portis had a cap hit of 3.726mil. We’ll round that to 3.75 million. Savings – 875k

Total Extension Savings – 8.375 Million (Green not traded), 7.5 Million (Green Traded).


Restructures

Brett Favre –
I think you need cap space this year and you take advantage of the fact that you won’t have Hunt, Sharper and likely Favre on the books in 2006. Restructure the entire LTBE signing bonus for 2005. We can afford it in later years, easily, and STILL will get significant cap relief when Favre retires. I think this is especially important if we KNOW Favre will retire after the 2005 season. LTBE bonus guaranteed. Savings – about 2.5 Million.

Time to assess.

Cap room saved – (trade Ahman Green) 27.135 Million. (extend Ahman Green) – 24.385 Million.

This makes us either 22.885Mil or 25.635Mil under the cap.

Now lets spend money.


Team UFA’s

Aaron Kampman
I would negotiate with Kampman, avoid the RFA costs. I can get him in for a cap figure of around 1 Million in 2005. Cap hit + 1 Million.

Marco Rivera
See above. I want my line perfectly back. Looking over some of the past contracts is hard, but, we’re definitely not looking at a cap hit over 2million to re-sign him. I’ll say cap hit + 1.75 Million.

Jue
Minimum contract, nothing special. Cost in the first year around 500k. Cap hit + 500k.

Cullen Jenkins.
Again, shouldn’t be too expensive. Get him signed for a few years at a fairly minimal cap figure. Cap hit + 600k

Craig Nall
I’d like to avoid RFA on him as well. I give him a backup salary. First year cap hit, we’ll go bigger then I’d expect. Cap hit + 850k.


Total Price + 4.7 Million.

RFA’s.

Barry, O’Sullivan, Tony Fischer each get the Minimum tender.

650k each, Cap hit + 1.95 Million

So re-signing my own players, I pay out…

6.65 Million.

My cap is now down to 16.235Mil or 18.985 Million.
Other Team UFA’s.

My biggest desire is a DT, but I’m starting to feel like there isn’t many out there that I would feel comfortable with. So. My biggest grab bag in the UFA market is LB’s and S’s. My goal is to spend around 10mil in free agents, I also must realize that with a cap windfall next season (hunt/sharper/favre off the books), I can push some money into the future instead of today. Not too much, mind you, but some.


My first priority.

Kenoy Kennedy – S (from Bronco’s)
Here’s priority #1. Here’s my guy that replaces Darren Sharper. He comes a lot cheaper. I give him a solid contract and I estimate my first year cap hit to be around 2 million. Cap hit + 2 Million.

Ituala Mili – TE (from Seahawks)
I have to replace Bubba Franks. I do so with a cheaper alternative in Mili. I figure about 1.5 Million in the first year of the contract. Cap hit + 1.5 Million.

I also want 2 Linebackers.
Pick 2 from this list….
Wil Witherspoon, David Thornton, Jeremiah Trotter, Tommy Polley, Ed Hartwell and/or Adalius Thomas. I calculate about 5mil of cap space between the two.

The rest of my cap space goes to rookies and minimum contract guys. Guys like Josue, Lenon, ST’s guys, etc. As well, I should have plenty of space to sign my rookies…. Speaking of which.

Round 1.

I use Najeh Davenport to move up in the first.


Round 1. Thomas Davis – S
Here’s my guy to pair up with Kenoy Kennedy. There. That’s some good tackling safeties.

Round 1(B) Ronnie Brown - RB
This pick occurs only if I move Ahman Green. I definitely need a replacement. Look at the history, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones. I feel with my O-Line, I can plug in a 1st round rookie and be just fine. Especially if my first round rookie is a guy like Ronnie Brown.



Round 2(A) Shawn Cody – DT
This pick sort of bugs me. I don’t like DT/DE ‘tweener types. But this guy will give me 1000% so I feel comfortable in it. I also feel like between Cullen Jenkins, Donnell Washington and Cody I have to be able to find SOMETHING.

Round 2(B) Alex Smith – TE
I’ve got Mili for experience. I’ve got McHugh and Steele for depth and now I add Smith. I feel there’s three solid TE’s in that group.

Round 3 Chris Canty – DE
I’m not sure if he’d be there late 3rd, but I feel pretty confident I could package something together to move up and grab Canty. The injury is an issue, but I think he’d give me a rush end I really want.


4-7 I get depth. A guard, another DT/NT, another safety (Leonhard would be nice for returns as well), another DE and I’d take a chance at bringing in Maurice Clarett.


Here’s my depth chart.

QB – Favre, Nall, O’Sullivan
RB – Ronnie Brown/Ahman Green, Maurice Clarett, Walter Williams, Tony Fischer
FB – Luchey, Leach
WR – Walker, Driver, Ferguson, Chatman, Thurman/Kight/ETC.
TE – Mili, Alex Smith, Sean McCugh, Ben Steele
LT – Clifton, Morley, Curtin
RT – Tauscher, Barry, Curtin
C – Flanagan, Wells
LG – Wells, Morley
RG – Rivera, Rookie

LDE – KGB, Corey Williams, Canty
RDE – Kampman, Canty (passing downs), Peterson
NT – Grady, Lee, Cole
DT – Cody, Washington, Jenkins (passing downs)
LB’s would depend on which LB’s we aquired. If trotter came in, for example, he’d be MLB, Barnett to WSLB, Diggs to SSLB. ETC.

Optional 3-4 alignment.
Ends – Cody/Washington/Jenkins (pick 2)
NT – Grady, Lee
MLB’s – Barnett/Diggs
OLB’s – Adalius Thomas? KGB?


SS – Thomas Davis
FS – Kenoy Kennedy, Jue, Leonhard (if Davis got injured, move Kennedy to SS, Jue to FS etc).

CB – Harris, Carroll, Thomas, Horton, Johnson, Swiney?



Coaching staff.

HC – Mike Sherman
OC – Darrell Bevell
QB – Doug Pederson
New WR coach when Ray Sherman leaves.

DC – Eric Mangini
Dline/LB/DB coaches are hired by Mangini as per his request.

ST – Someone new, you tell me, I don’t know much about ST coaches. Maybe Edgar Bennett?


Front Office
VP to replace Hatley – John Schneider (this would be that co-Gm thing, he’d have much more power then hatley). I don't like most of the GM's people seem to tink up (Armey? Mueller? the rams and the seahawks/saints never did anything during their tenure that "exites" me. Sherman can stay as GM this year, but he does so limiting his power substantially. In essence, similiar to what Holmgren did in Seattle... though without really giving up the title of "GM".

I'd also give Ron Wolf Schneider's old title. We could use a consultant like wolf.


Dorsey and McKenzie stay the same.


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